Current Outlook

Small 2025/26 seasonal determination increases for the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced an update of 2025/26 seasonal determinations and an updated determination outlook.

The Murray system seasonal determination increases from 39 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 40 per cent HRWS. The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 31 per cent HRWS to 33 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system remains at 100 per cent HRWS. The Broken and Bullarook systems both remain unchanged at 0 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the improvements came from small storage inflow increases.

“The flows into the major storages for the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems were slightly higher than our estimates, which provided additional water to allocate,” Dr Bailey said.

“The flows into the Broken and Bullarook storages were not enough to increase seasonal determination in those systems.

“More rainfall is needed over the coming months to increase storages levels and seasonal determinations across all systems.”

Outlook for the 2025/26 Season

The outlooks for 2025/26 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

• Wet                 Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
• Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
• Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
• Extreme Dry   Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Additional Scenarios webpage. 

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

• The next 2025/26 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Friday, 1 August 2025.
• The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Monday, 11 August 2025.